My predictions for Brexit
- Parliament will vote against the triggering of article 50.
- The current May government will fall due a vote off no confidence as they cannot meet their mandate.
- During the general election at least one party will offer a further referendum on Britain's membership in Europe. The party offering the second referendum will win against the odds and the usual polls.
- The major member states in Europe will act on the realisation that the current union is doomed if the UK leaves as they will have to go to their own parliaments to ask for additional funds to make up the short full in the UK contributions. The additional short fall contributions will trigger a parliamentary vote in their own countries. A vote that is likely to be lost in Germany and France.
- Prior to the referendum there will be a modified offer tabled by the EU mainly around control of immigration. The modified offer will solely be to save and build an enhanced EU which is fairer.
- The new referendum will take place but with a vastly improved message, buoyed by the modified offer from the EU. Less about fear more about togetherness and unity.
- What ever the result of the second referendum people on both sides will wonder why the modified offer from the EU was not tabled before the first referendum but the President of the EU will remain in post.